Tag:Draft Value
Posted on: March 30, 2009 7:06 pm
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I've Got a Secret,I've Been Hiding, Under My Skin

Since I can't fit the entire lyrics to that Styx classic Mr.Roboto in the title head line, I though I'd give you a tid bit, and post the rest here.

Domo Arigato, Mr. Roboto
Domo Arigato, Mr. Roboto
Mata ahoo Hima de
Domo Arigato, Mr. Roboto
Himitsu wo Shiri tai

You're wondering who I am
(Secret, secret, I've got a secret)
Machine or mannequin
(Secret, secret, I've got a secret)
With parts made in Japan
(Secret, secret, I've got a secret)
I am the modren man

I've got a secret, I've been hiding under my skin
My heart is human, my blood is boiling
My brain I.B.M., so if you see me
Acting strangely, don't be surprised

I'm just a man who needed someone
And somewhere to hide
To keep me alive, just keep me alive
Somewhere to hide to keep me alive

.....

 

And now that that catchy song  is stuck in your head, you're probably thinking what does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Well in all actually, nothing. Nothing at all really. I was looking for a means of conveying a secret, and Mr.Robot just so happen to have one, and well the song does say secret like 28 times, so it stuck with me.

 

So what's my big secret?

Well it's not really a secret it's more or less a matter of exposing draft value particularily in a keeper league draft I took part in last night.

Here's the history of this team. The league is held over at Sportingnews.com, it's a 6x6 (OBP and Holds) 12 team roto, 5 player keeper. I took over a team with a solid list of players.

I formed my team with arguably the most solid OF in the league retaining the rights to Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, and Nate McLouth. Evan Longoria was my final keeper at 3b. As I prepared for the draft from my place in the 6th draft slot, I quickly noticed just how many great, not good, but great pitching options were available.

Since I didn't really have any specific draft strategy going in, I made one up then and there, and here are the results.

Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Jose Valverde.

My first three picks off the board. Needless to say, I was estatic! It's not to often that I get to have one sexy pitcher, let alone two on the same pitching staff. I drafted Jose Valverde after the initial closer run took place in the 7th round.

I followed that group up with Rafeal Furcal, Brian Fuentes, and Russell Martin .

Excuse me while I pat myself on the back here. Two very good closers with secure roles on my team with in my first five picks. I'm sold, getting arguably the best player at their position in Martin. I'm sold. Furcal is the wild card. If he's healthy oh boy. I may have gotten myself that #4 SS in all of baseball.

So after 6 picks and my roster looking pretty good with a stacked OF, good pen, awesome staff anchors and great options at weak position, I set out addressing needs.

Jose Lopez, Fransisco Cordero, Jim Thome .

Second base filled by an ever improving power theat at the key stone. One more solid closing option, which means I don't need to look anymore, and my first true masher of the draft. Sure the batting average is a concern, but Thome is a career .279 hitter, so a swing back up to .275 would not surprise me, not to mention in an OBP league the guy is solid.

Joba Chamberlain, Adrian Beltre, Adam LaRoche.

So I got myself another starting pitcher, he likely won't exceed 180 IP, but the upside for dominance is more then enough reason to draft him here. Beltre and LaRoche are two unspectacular options at 1b and CI, but they're as solid and reliable as it gets.

Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Kazuo Matsui.

By this point in the draft I've got 8 of my 10 pitching slots filled up, with players that are generally #3 on most teams. How often is it that Matt Cain finds himself as a #5? He and Johnson give me two good pitchers with upside for great value. Matsui fills out my MI slot with some speed and a good average, I've just got to find a back up when he's injured, and he's always injured.

David DeJesus, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Max Scherzer.

Filled out the final OF slot with a solid 10/10 guy in DeJesus, he also hits for a solid average, with the potential to bring in a few more RBI thanks to move down in the batting order. Kouzmanoff seems to be on ALL my teams. A solid 25hr, .275 threat from my util is worthy of a roster spot. With all the concerns around Mad Max regarding his injury the 100mph arm is too good to pass up this late in a keeper draft. I'm going to stash him on the DL and pick someone else up.

J.P. Howell, Hung-Chih Kuo, Octavio Dotel.

There are hold remember. These three guys may not get a ton of them, but they will definately help out across the board, giving me a boat load of strike outs, good era and whip, and a bunch of wins and a few saves as well. In shallow leagues I end up with some variation of this trifecta in favour of a marginal starting pitcher.

Mike Adams, Brandon Lyon, Matt LaPorta.

Got another member of my Awesome All Relievers team. Mike Adams obviously. I grabbed Lyon as a potential 4th closer, and if he sucks, I'll trade him or cut, he was a late pick anyways. With a few of the other top prospects being drafted already (David Price, Matt Wieters, Jordan Schafer, Colby Rasmus etc ) I felt it was time for me to grab mine. Sure LaPorta won't start the year in the bigs, but his upside is far to great to say in the minors for long. Well you've read the reports on the guy, you know the story.

Fred Lewis.

Yeah that's right. I grabbed a .280 10hr, 25sb guy with the final pick of the draft. So what wanna fight about it?

 

So you've seen the roster and you're likely still wondering what the big secret is. Here it is.

In keeper leagues, pitching is WAY under valued. C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, and Jonathan Papelbon, were the only pitcher kept. Which meant it was far to easy to exploit everyone elses willingness to grab all the big bats immediately. I know that that is the general consensus when it comes to fantasy baseball, but when I've got the opportunity to own BOTH Webb and Haren, I'm taking the chance.  Realistically I only missed out on Shane Victorino, Bobby Abreu, Alexie Ramirez, Garret Atkins and Carlos Pena in terms of hitters. Considering that I already had better or drafted comparable players at those positions, I was more then willing to grab the arms.

Essentially what I'm saying is that it pays to take a look at what kind of players are being kept, and what positions or stats are being under valued in your draft . Will you end up with results like these in your drafts? It's possible, but would you be happy with them? I think you might be.

Until next time.

 

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